President Donald Trump on Monday said he called off a new round of airstrikes he claimed were set for tomorrow. In a post on his social media outlet, Trump said he made the decision at the best of Gulf Arab allies because of improving efforts to end the war. 

“I have been asked by the Emir of Qatar, Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud, and the President of the United Arab Emirates, Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, to hold off on our planned Military attack of the Islamic Republic of Iran, which was scheduled for tomorrow, in that serious negotiations are now taking place,” Trump proclaimed on Truth Social, adding that, “in their opinion, as Great Leaders and Allies, a Deal will be made, which will be very acceptable to the United States of America, as well as all Countries in the Middle East, and beyond.”

“This Deal will include, importantly, NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS FOR IRAN!” the president emphasized. “Based on my respect for the above mentioned Leaders, I have instructed Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, The Chairman of The Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Daniel Caine, and The United States Military, that we will NOT be doing the scheduled attack of Iran tomorrow, but have further instructed them to be prepared to go forward with a full, large scale assault of Iran, on a moment’s notice, in the event that an acceptable Deal is not reached.”

However, as Axios reporter Barak Ravid noted, “Trump has extended deadlines and postponed planned attacks on Iran at least half a dozen times since the war began.”

So it remains to be seen whether this latest statement has any merit or if it is another effort to kick the can down the road.

Trump’s latest claim about the war highlights the ever-changing narrative of events. Earlier in the day, Axios reported that Iran had given an updated proposal for a deal to end the war, “but the White House believes it is not a meaningful improvement and is insufficient for a deal,” citing a senior U.S. official and a source briefed on the situation.

At issue is the future of Iran’s nuclear ambitions and specifically their stockpile of enriched uranium. Trump’s bottom line is that Iran needs to give up any and all future nuclear ambitions, and the enriched uranium it already has, while the Iranians maintain they have the right to enrich uranium and will not hand over any of their existing material. Tehran’s control of the Strait, its ballistic missile and drone arsenal, and support for proxies are other sticking points.

U.S. officials say Trump wants a deal to end the war, but is considering resuming it “due to Iran’s rejection of many of his demands and refusal to make meaningful concessions on its nuclear program,” Axios added. “Trump is expected to convene his top national security team in the Situation Room on Tuesday to discuss military options, two U.S. officials said.”

Axios stated that the senior U.S. official said if Iran won’t shift its position, the U.S. will have to continue the negotiations “through bombs.”

In contrast, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei on Monday told reporters that his country’s “nuclear enrichment is a right that ‘already exists,’” an indication that Tehran isn’t budging on its stance. Still, Baghaei also described how negotiations with the United States are still continuing through Pakistani mediation.

All this comes against the backdrop of reports that the U.S. and Israel have been carrying out their most intense preparations yet to renew attacks on Iran, possibly as soon as this week, two Middle Eastern officials told The New York Times on Friday.

Monday’s back and forth comes a day after Trump issued a new warning to Tehran, saying “For Iran, the Clock is Ticking, and they better get moving, FAST, or there won’t be anything left of them. TIME IS OF THE ESSENCE!”

In the wake of renewed threats from Trump, Iran claims it is prepared to defend against the U.S. and Israel if needed.

“In case of aggression against Iran again, Iran’s armed forces have new #surprises for the enemy,” Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei warned, according to a post on X by the official Iranian IRIB media outlet. “Contradictory behaviors and threats of the enemy do not confuse or scare us.”

The tough talk between the U.S. and Iran clearly also includes some amount of bluster as the two sides seek a way forward without appearing to have caved to the other’s demands. Trump’s claim about holding off on an attack due to improving negotiations may be another example of that. But eventually time on this kind of posturing will run out and this week could be that inflection point.

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On Monday, the country’s Supreme National Security Council said a newly formed Iranian agency, called the Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA), would provide “real-time updates” on operations and the latest developments in the Strait, a crucial chokepoint through which about 20 percent of the world’s oil and gas pass in peacetime.

The announcement about the PGSA follows news that Iran “started a Bitcoin-backed insurance service for shipping companies that want to transit the Strait of Hormuz,” Bloomberg News reported, citing the semi-official Fars news agency reported, which claimed it has documents obtained from Iran’s Ministry of Economy and Financial Affairs.

Dubbed Hormuz Safe, “the Iranian government says it could generate more than $10 billion in revenue for the Islamic Republic,” Bloomberg noted, adding that Fars provided no time frame or a breakdown of how the service would work.

The effort is widely seen as a way for Iran to get around calling any fee for crossing the Strait a toll.

“The Iranian regime is introducing a formalized toll system under the guise of maritime insurance policies and continuing to deploy incentives and threats to vessels in the Persian Gulf as part of their efforts to normalize and solidify Iranian control over the Strait,” the Institute for the Study of War posited. “This system appears designed to be more palatable than an outright ‘toll’ by framing it as a ‘maritime insurance policy.’ The insurance presumably insures the vessel against an Iranian attack.”

“As the President stated, the Strait is international water, and we are not going to let Iran toll the Strait or normalize an illegal regime where they attempt to control traffic through the Strait.,” a White House official told us.

Coinciding with its growing efforts in the Strait, PGSA unveiled an account on X on Monday.

“The Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) is the legal entity and representative authority of the Islamic Republic of Iran for managing the passage and transit through the Strait of Hormuz,” PGSA asserted. “Navigation within the introduced boundaries of the Strait of Hormuz, which were previously determined by the Armed Forces and authorities of the Islamic Republic of Iran, is contingent upon full coordination with these entities, and passage without permission will be considered illegal.”

Iran has divided its operational control over the Strait of  Hormuz area between the Iranian Navy and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp (IRGC) Navy.

“From the shores of Makran to the Strait of Hormuz, it is managed by the Iranian Navy, and the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf are managed by the IRGC Navy,” the official Iranian IRIB news outlet announced on X.

Despite the ongoing U.S. blockade of its ports, Iran is still loading crude into tankers, “although (not right now) in Kharg Island,” Bloomberg commodities and energy columnist Javier Blas reported on X. “Instead, it’s loading a tanker at Jask, an alternative terminal outside the Strait of Hormuz (but inside the US Navy blockade line).”

In a post on X, TankerTrackers.com stated that there “are actually plenty of able, cargo-empty tankers within the US Navy blockade perimeter but Iran has already lowered its oil production to match consumption and some storage buildup on land. The storage situation does not appear to be dire for the time being.”

As we have previously reported, a major goal of the blockade is to hurt Iran economically, including by threatening its ability to store oil.

Pakistan has reportedly deployed thousands of troops, jets and air defense systems to Saudi Arabia to help defend the kingdom amid a shaky ceasefire.

Pakistan’s contribution to the mutual aid pact includes Chinese weapons, Reuters explained. It “has deployed a full squadron of around 16 aircraft,” mostly JF-17 Thunder fighters, which were ​sent to Saudi Arabia in early April. Pakistan had also sent “two squadrons of drones,” Reuters reported, adding that Islamabad could also send more troops, plus a Chinese-made HQ-9 long-range surface-to-air missile system.

The equipment is operated by Pakistani personnel and financed by Saudi Arabia, the news outlet pointed out. It remains unclear exactly what this means, if it pertains to the deployment or to the hardware itself.

Earlier this year, we reported that talks about the jets were underway, potentially to be paid for by converting some of the billions of dollars of Saudi loans taken out by Islamabad. However, at the time, shortly before the war broke out, it remained unclear if the Saudis even would want a light fighter like the Thunder at all, especially considering it could cause a rift with the U.S. at a critical time. In the past months, the kingdom had been offered the U.S.-made F-35, as you can read about here, and operates advanced fighters like the F-15SA and Typhoon.

The JF-17 was developed jointly by China’s Chengdu and the Pakistan Aeronautical Complex (PAC), and the first prototype took to the air in 2003. The aircraft is powered by a single Russian-designed RD-93 turbofan engine, an improved version of the RD-33 that is found in the twin-engined MiG-29 Fulcrum. Presumably, the JF-17s will help defend Saudi skies from drone and cruise missile attacks, although that too isn’t perfectly clear at this time.

It is possible that amid the shaky ceasefire, Iran’s proxies may be carrying out attacks on Arab Gulf nations. On Sunday, both the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia said they were attacked by drones. UAE officials said the attacks were carried out by Iran or its proxies while Saudi said it was struck by drones launched from Iraq.

The UAE Defense Ministry said an electrical generator outside the inner perimeter of the Barakah Nuclear Energy Plant was struck by one of three drones launched at the country. Two other drones were successfully intercepted, it said.

In its initial statement on X, the MoD said that the drones “entered the country from the western border direction,” without assigning blame. UAE officials later updated that to say the drone was “launched by Iran or one of its proxies” in what officials called a “dangerous escalation.”

The officials did not get more specific. The Houthi rebels of Yemen operate southwest of the UAE while several Iranian-backed militias operate in Iraq, northwest of the country.

The Emirate MoD “affirmed that it remains fully prepared and ready to address any threats and will firmly confront any attempts to undermine the country’s security, in a manner that safeguards its sovereignty, security and stability, and protects its national interests and gains.”

In a post on X, the IAEA expressed “grave concern” about the incident and said military activity that threatens nuclear safety is unacceptable. The [director general] reiterates call for maximum military restraint near any NPP to avoid the danger of a nuclear accident.”

Pakistan on Monday “strongly condemned” the drone attack on the UAE’s nuclear power plant.

“Any deliberate targeting of nuclear facilities constitutes a grave violation of international law, including international humanitarian law, the United Nations Charter, and the fundamental principles of nuclear safety and security enshrined in the Statute and resolutions of the International Atomic Energy Agency,” Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry said in an X post. “Nuclear installations must never be targeted under any circumstances. Such reckless actions carry potentially catastrophic and irreversible consequences for human life, the environment and regional, as well as global peace and security.”

Pakistan’s condemnation comes as it is trying to keep a flagging peace process going amid an increasingly tenuous ceasefire.

Saudi Arabia said it too was attacked by drones on Sunday, but did not say who launched them.

The official spokesperson for the Ministry of Defense (MoD), Major General Turki Al-Maliki, “stated that on the morning of Sunday…three drones were intercepted and destroyed after entering the Kingdom’s airspace coming from Iraqi airspace,” the Saudi MoD stated on X. Al-Maliki “affirmed that the Ministry of Defense reserves the right to respond at the appropriate time and place, and will take and implement all necessary operational measures to respond to any attempt to infringe on the Kingdom’s sovereignty, security, and the safety of its citizens and residents on its territory.”

There are several Iranian-linked proxy groups in Iraq that have been attacking U.S. and allied facilities in that country.

On Monday Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi held a phone call with his Saudi counterpart Faisal bin Farhan. According to the Iranian Foreign Ministry, the two discussed issues related to the ongoing diplomatic process and the latest regional developments, in their seventh call since the ceasefire began.

The New York Times is reporting that Israel established at least a second base in Iraq to aid its air campaigns against Iran. As we previously noted, the presence of the first one was reported by The Wall Street Journal.

In its story, the Times stated the base it was writing about pre-dated the current conflict and was used during last year’s 12-Day War between Israel and Iran. The newspaper also said a Bedouin shepherd was killed by helicopter fire after stumbling on the base in an effort to keep it secret.

The Times story lines up with our earlier reporting that Israel likely created facilities in Iraq during the 12-Day War. We also predicted at the time that it would likely happen again in the future.

As we noted in the past, Israel used the base reported on by the Journal to stage troops and equipment and provide combat search and rescue service if needed for downed pilots during the current conflict. 

Amid its own ceasefire agreement with the Lebanese government, Israel is continuing to hit Hezbollah targets in the southern part of that country where it has a growing military presence.

Contact the author: howard@twz.com